Un'analisi attenta e per certi versi spietata del grande Peter Bodo sul futuro di Federer, uscita qualche giorno fa su tennis.com. Per chi ha voglia di leggerla senza farsi prendere dall'ansia per le domande che Bodo si/ci pone.
Ho evidenziato con il grassetto i passaggi che reputo più interessanti.
It’s a stretch to say that Andy Murray took the No. 2 ranking away
from Roger Federer when he won the Miami Masters on Sunday. It’s more
like Federer left the No. 2 ranking on the dashboard of his car and
walked away—with the windows down and the engine running. Somebody was
bound to come along.
No disrespect to Murray here; he’s a deserving number two and he may
well have wrenched that ranking directly from Federer’s hand, given the
chance. But Federer didn’t even show up in Miami. Thus, he gave up the
paltry 45 points he earned there last year (he was upset in the third
round by Andy Roddick) instead of beefing up his resistance to the
Murray surge by replacing those points with a better haul.
Clearly, Roger isn’t sweating the rankings. He’s earned the right,
officially and sentimentally, to play as often or as little as he likes.
His decisions in that regard will have an impact on his ranking,
though. It leaves us wondering how much longer we can count on Federer
being around.
He’s 31, though during a time when the familiar age barriers are tumbling—Federer
himself was beaten in last year’s Halle final by Tommy Haas, who turns
35 today. But Federer also is a family man and a somewhat jaded warrior. The Swiss icon says he enjoys training, surrounded by his family, at
his home away from home in Dubai. He also appreciates the proverbial
“smell of the greasepaint and the roar of the crowd” when he ventures
forth to tournaments.
But can he remain enough of a force in the game to
feel comfortable and relevant if he eschews the rat-race aspect the
tour—that mandate to grind away at a sufficient number of events,
usually a mix of major and minor ones? That remains to be seen. The pressure to perform at a high standard will only increase in direct
proportion to the number of events Federer plays. He’s between a rock
and a hard place: He may be happy to play just 14 tournaments (his
schedule this year), which means that he’ll be playing four fewer events
than the minimum requirement for mere mortals on the tour, those who
haven’t earned similar exemptions. Every tournament will count toward
his ranking, so one or two unexpectedly poor results will have an
outsized impact on his position. And that means Federer could, at some
point, end up meeting a Novak Djokovic or Rafael Nadal as early as the
quarterfinals. (The latter came to pass at Indian Wells, when Nadal was
ranked No. 5.)
Federer is, knowingly, taking a lot for granted—starting with his own
superiority. Last year at this time, he’d already played seven events
(including Davis Cup) and had accumulated 2,855 ranking points. This
year, though, he’s eliminated three events (including Davis Cup) and has
earned just 1,170 points.
Federer is coming off a terrific 2012—he won 71 matches, the most since
he won 92 at the zenith of his powers in 2006. But the rolling ranking
is inexorable, and Federer now has just as little margin for error as he
loses or adds ranking points as he does when he pulls the trigger on
that topspin backhand down the line. He’s counting on producing his best
tennis, on demand, without a lot of throat clearing.
We haven’t seen Federer in about three weeks. And we won’t see him for
over a month, until he makes his debut at the Madrid Masters. The good
news for Federer is that he’s the defending champion; the bad news is
that this year, the tournament is back on traditional red clay, after an
unfortunate experiment with blue dirt. The slippery, quick surface
suited Federer’s game. More important, it wigged out fierce red-clay
traditionalists Nadal and Djokovic, who flamed out and then vowed not to
return to Madrid if the tournament didn’t abandon the surface.
The upshot: Federer will be defending 1,000 points earned under
fortuitous circumstances, and he’ll venture forth on the red clay
without having played a competitive match in about two months. I think
the world of Federer, but I also think that he’s taking enormous
chances. Players get in a groove and winning—or in some cases,
losing—becomes automatic, partly because of endless repetition. Now
he’ll have to go out and produce right away, from something like a cold
start. It seemed to work for him at the first Grand Slam of the year,
when he made the semis. Will it also pan out mid-season? Madrid is the start of a three-tournament clay swing for Federer. In
2012, he was also a semifinalist in Rome and at Roland Garros, losing to
Djokovic on each occasion. That’s a superb record, but in the two
previous years in Rome, Federer lost to Richard Gasquet (round three,
2011) and Ernests Gulbis (second round, 2010). He’s been stellar at
Roland Garros throughout his career, but then, he’s gone in with a high
ranking for almost a decade. Nobody can be sure he’ll roll into Paris
quite as well insulated this year.
This then is the Federer bind—and the Federer gamble. You can’t fault
him for the decision to be more selective in the events he plays, or for
listening to his body (and heart) and creating exactly the kind of
schedule that enables him to hit what he believes is the right balance.
But tennis isn’t designed to accommodate the needs of an over-30 player
(or an under-20, for that matter). It’s not graded on a curve, even if
it makes special concession for players, like Federer, who have
performed outstanding service. What it doesn’t give them is any
consideration when it comes to how build a ranking. Nobody is keeping
Federer’s seat warm at No. 2—or four, or six, or nine, or 11. Federer has spoken enthusiastically about extending his career until
the next Olympic Games in 2016, and there’s no doubt that, barring some
disaster, he’ll still be a very dangerous player at that time. Heck,
he’ll be younger than ATP No. 14 Haas is right now.
The looming question
is whether Federer will endure a trip south in the rankings. How far is
he willing to fall and still feel that it’s okay, that he’s loving the
challenge, enjoying the scenery, and living the life? Last year at this time, Haas was ranked No. 137. He asked for a wild
card into the French Open, but they refused him. Thus, he had to
qualify—and to his credit he did so; he ended up playing six matches
before losing Gasquet in the third round of the main draw.
Granted, the situation was different, as Haas was coming back from one
of his innumerable injuries.
But you have to wonder, how far behind the
leaders on the tour would Federer be willing to fall before he begins to
question the wisdom of what he’s doing? It’s a question every single player on earth, from the lowliest
journeyman to the greatest of champions, must face one day. This may not
be the day Federer has to address it, but the next few months will tell
us—and him—an awful lot. The only thing I myself feel confident about
is that if he ever asks the Roland Garros pooh-bahs for a wild card, he
will not be denied.
![[Thread unico] Roger Federer Images?q=tbn:ANd9GcTZ1M2oAHBraOsv8WCZPvj7KvVt02_lEBZLFoHdGDa2VS2yHQg3Dg](https://encrypted-tbn2.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcTZ1M2oAHBraOsv8WCZPvj7KvVt02_lEBZLFoHdGDa2VS2yHQg3Dg)
![[Thread unico] Roger Federer Empty](https://2img.net/i/empty.gif)
[Thread unico] Roger FedererVen 25 Gen 2013 - 11:09![[Thread unico] Roger Federer 97171](https://2img.net/u/2814/15/97/87/smiles/97171.gif)
![[Thread unico] Roger Federer 939115](https://2img.net/u/2814/15/97/87/smiles/939115.gif)
ma come si può fare uno smash del genere??????????
